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There was magic in the air in the Bronx on Tuesday night as Aaron Judge hit his 60th home run to kick-start a wild come-from-behind win over the Pirates at Yankee Stadium. The Bombers were down, 8-4, entering the bottom of the ninth but went on to win, 9-8, thanks to a walk-off grand slam from Giancarlo Stanton.

The Yankees and Pirates go right back at it on Wednesday night in MLB action. New York is a -310 favorite behind Luis Severino, while the Pirates are currently sitting at +250. Those are almost the same odds that Judge has to hit his 61st home run (+255). 

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Aaron Judge smacks home run number 60.
Aaron Judge smacks home run number 60.
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Yankees vs. Pirates odds

Odds provided by Caesars Sportsbook

Spread: PIT +1.5 (+110) vs. NYY -1.5 (-130)

Moneyline: PIT (+235) vs. NYY (-292)

Total: Over 7.5 (-115) | Under 7.5 (-105)

Yankees vs. Pirates prediction

In a situation like this, you know the Yankees are going to be inflated. The Pirates are terrible, the Bombers are a top-five team in the MLB and the entire baseball world will be watching to see if Judge can tie Roger Maris’ American League/Yankee home run record. There aren’t going to be many people watching this game because they bet the Bucs. 

But that’s the thing about betting. If you’re in it for the long haul, you know where the value is going to be in a situation like this. 

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Rodolfo Castro
Rodolfo Castro
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There’s more than just Pittsburgh’s price being inflated that makes the Bucs an intriguing bet at this number. While the Pirates offense ranks near the bottom of the league in basically every metric, they do have a decent matchup on Wednesday night.

This will be Luis Severino’s first MLB start in over two months due to a stint on the injured list with a strained lat. Severino’s season-long numbers are solid — he’s pitched to a 3.45 ERA and 3.47 xFIP in 86 innings — but it could take him a start or two to get back up to speed after so much time off. There’s never a great time to back the Pirates offense, but this isn’t the worst spot for them. 

Pittsburgh will also have its best pitcher on the mound to counter Severino. Roansy Contreras has pitched to a 3.24 ERA in 83.1 innings this season and even though his xFIP suggests his statline is a little inflated, he still is the emerging ace of this staff at 22 years old. Contreras also enters this start in good form, posting a 1.65 ERA over his last five outings (27.1 innings). 

When it comes to spots like this, it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out that the Yankees are going to be inflated. It could be a historic night, the Yanks just won a thriller 24 hours ago, and the Pirates are terrible.

But the pitching matchup and price make the Bucs worthy of a bet to spoil the shindig on Wednesday night.

Yankees vs. Pirates MLB pick

Pirates ML +235 (Caesars)

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