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Mets vs. Brewers prediction: Odds, MLB pick today

It isn’t very often that Max Scherzer closes as an underdog, but that could be the situation on Monday night when the Mets travel to Milwaukee to take on Corbin Burnes and the Brewers. 

At the time of writing the Mets are slight -104 underdogs on the road. Should the line hold, it will be just the third time in 21 starts that Scherzer has closed as a ‘dog this season. The Mets are 1-2 in those games (per Action Labs). 


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Mets vs. Brewers odds

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Spread: NYM -1.5 (+170) vs. MIL +1.5 (-200)

Moneyline: NYM (-105) vs. MIL (-115)

Total: Over 6.5 (-115) | Under 6.5 (-105)

Mets vs. Brewers prediction

Although his overall numbers this year sparkle, Scherzer did endure a minor rough patch in mid-August. After going 10 straight starts without allowing more than two earned runs, Scherzer surrendered four runs in back-to-back starts against the Braves and Yankees. Rumors of his demise were greatly exaggerated though, as Scherzer bounced back with a pair of pearlers against the Rockies and Nationals at Citi Field. 


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Corbin Burnes
Corbin Burnes
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Scherzer has posted a 2.08 ERA, 0.91 WHIP and 30.6 K% in 11 starts since returning from the injured list on July 5. And even though his 3.35 xFIP suggests he’s been a little bit fortunate, everything else about his statline checks out.

It won’t be the easiest of matchups for Scherzer to navigate. Not only is Burnes one of the few pitchers in the MLB that can go toe-to-toe with Mad Max, but the Brewers’ offense has scored 40 runs over their last seven games. Milwaukee has won seven of its last 10 contests.

After winning the Cy Young in 2021, Burnes has barely missed a beat in 2022. The 27-year-old is 10-7 with a 2.97 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and .198 batting average against in 27 outings this season. Burnes’ StatCast profile also jumps off the page as he ranks in the 80th percentile in xwOBA, 77th percentile in average exit velocity, 96th percentile in whiff rate and 78th percentile in hard hit rate. 

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Max Scherzer
Max Scherzer
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The numbers all point to this being a pitchers’ duel and that is reflected in the odds as the total for this contest sits at 6.5. But, as is often the case, when everything points in one direction, there will be value going the other way. 

And it’s not a bad time to buy on either of these offenses. While the Brewers have scored 5.7 runs over their last seven contests, the Mets bats are also white hot with 23 runs scored over their last four contests. The Mets own the second-best wOBA and wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season.

Betting the over in a matchup between Max Scherzer and Corbin Burnes does not sound like a fun time, but these offenses shouldn’t go quietly in the good night on Monday.

Mets vs. Brewers MLB pick today

Over 6.5 (-115, BetMGM)

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